East and South Regional Preview

Here are my final records in Group the Group Brackets for the NJSIAA high school basketball tournament as well as my final record for the conference tournaments.

46-16 in Group I games
53-10 in Group II games
43-20 in Group III games
47-16 in Group IV games
18-8 in Non-Public A games
19-4 in Non-Public B games
226-74 overall

6-1 America East
6-5 Atlantic Coast
4-3 Atlantic Sun
8-3 Atlantic 10
8-7 Big East
2-3 Big Sky
4-3 Big South
8-2 Big Ten
10-1 Big 12
6-1 Big West
8-3 Colonial Athletic Association
8-3 Conference USA
5-4 Horizon League
7-2 Metro Atlantic
7-4 Mid-American
10-0 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
6-3 Missouri Valley
7-1 Mountain West
4-3 Northeast
4-3 Ohio Valley
6-2 Pac-10
6-1 Patriot League
8-3 Southeastern Conference
9-2 Southern Conference
6-1 Southland Conference
7-0 Summit League
8-4 Sun Belt
6-1 Southwestern Athletic Conference
6-1 Western Athletic Conference
5-2 West Coast
195-72 Overall

Now onto the previews for the right side of the bracket.

I think upon seeing this half of the bracket most people thought thought two things. The first was that Duke has a pretty easy road to the Elite Eight and second is how packed Kentucky's bracket is. Temple's a 5. Cornell's a 12. A solid Wofford team who nearly beat Pitt early on this season is a 13. This bracket from top to bottom is stacked. Even a 15 seed like Morgan State has some experience and had they not been playing a red hot West Virginia team, I would have given them a shot at an upset. Their seed doesn't help either. A 15 over 2 hasn't happened in nearly a decade. I'm looking forward to that bracket in particular because so many teams can go deep. Kentucky isn't invincible as a lot of people saw in their game yesterday vs. Mississippi State to capture the SEC Tournament title. I'm sure some people even have them losing to Texas or Wake Forest in the second round. No one knows what to expect from teams like Marquette, Washington, and New Mexico. Any of them are capable of losing first round, but also having runs to the elite eight. This to me, is the bracket to watch.

East Region
Records/How they Got Here
1) Kentucky 32-2/SEC Champion
2) West Virginia 27-6/Big East Champion
3) New Mexico 29-4/Mountain West at-large
4) Wisconsin 23-8/Big Ten at-large
5) Temple 29-5/Atlantic 10 Champion
6) Marquette 22-11/Big East at-large
7) Clemson 21-10/Atlantic Coast at-large
8) Texas 24-9/Big 12 at-large
9) Wake Forest 19-10/Atlantic Coast at-large
10) Missouri 22-10/Big 12 at-large
11) Washington 24-9/Pacific-10 Champion
12) Cornell 27-4/Ivy League Champion
13) Wofford 26-8/Southern Champion
14) Montana 22-9/Big Sky Champion
15) Morgan State 27-9/Mid-Eastern Athletic Champion
16) East Tennessee State 20-14/Atlantic Sun Champion

Favorites
Obviously, the 2 favorites here are Kentucky and West Virginia. If I had to pick of the two, I'd choose West Virginia. They have a lot more experience than Kentucky and are red-hot right now. I think the Big East Conference was much, much tougher than the SEC this year and games that West Virginia get in the Big East helps prepare them for the NCAA Tournament a lot of the time. They have been phenomonal late in the season in the final minutes of games winning three nailbiters, two of which were won by senior Da'Sean Butler, whose averaging 17 points per game. Four of their six losses have been by seven or fewer points. One of their major flaws is their free throw shooting, which has been suspect at times. I also think they have the best coach in this bracket with Bob Huggins who has proven time and time again how good of a coach he is. I think their tough defense and experience carries them to a win over Kentucky in the Elite Eight. A lot of people obviously like Kentucky, as they should. They probably have the most NBA talent of any collegiate team, but are also very young. Another team with a great coach in John Calipari, who has had several deep runs in the tournament. Obviously this is one of the main storylines in this bracket. More so than any other top seed, anything other than a Championship is a bust. Kansas and Syracuse has recently won titles and Duke obviously has had a phenomonal last 2 decades, but Kentucky hasn't had as much success as of late and this would be a big step back into prominence if they were to win the title. In addition, there's a very good chance that their best two players, John Wall and Demarcus Cousins are gone after this year, so they would have to start from scratch again. As talented as they are, they are also extremely young which is a major caution sign when it comes to picking them. I'm not falling into the trap that some people are when they pick the winner of Texas/Wake over Kentucky. I really don't see that happening. Wake Forest is lucky to be an 9 seed, and Kentucky is much better than Texas. But they could trip up later to a Wisconsin, Temple, etc. I think their youth will hurt them and I also think in tough spots, the two star players will play a little more selfishly which I think could doom them.

Dark Horses
There are a lot of dark horses here. I can see a number of teams making runs to the sweet sixteen that not many people would expect. The first one is New Mexico. Many people coming in probably don't know a lot about New Mexico and are questioning them being seeded third. But the Mountain West Conference is usually pretty tough and they're battle tested. They've played (and beat) tough out of conference competition such as California and Texas A&M. They've also beaten BYU in conference play. A 29-4 record is also obviously very good. They have very good guard play and in the NCAA Tournament, teams with good guards are usually in good shape. Darington Hobson averages 16 points per game and 9 rebounds per game. They get plenty of scoring from their supporting cast and are proficient three point shooters. I think Coach Steve Alford has a team capable of potentially getting to the sectional final. I think the Marquette-Wisconsin winner could potentially win a couple games. I was impressed by Marquette's toughness down the stretch last week in the game vs. Villanova. They play with a lot of heart and that's something that can't be measured in the NCAA Tournament. They have a very experienced team with 2 starting seniors, 2 starting juniors and 1 starting sophomore. Lazar Hayward as proven himself a very capable leader and can carry the team on his back. He has averaged 18 points per game and 8 rebounds per game. While they do shoot free throws very well, the thing that continually has doomed Marquette in recent years, such as their game vs. Stanford where they couldn't stop the Lopez brothers is their lack of height. A team with height has a great shot to beat them. That is what makes this bracket so interesting. New Mexico, Marquette and Washington don't really excel in post play. They are all guard oriented teams so those games are usually shootouts rather than grind out and slower paced games. With Washington, their best two players are Quincy Pondexter and Isiah Thomas. Pondexter scores 20 points per game and pulls down 8 boards. He could make a big difference in the Marquette game. Isaiah Thomas is also another major scoring threat scoring 17 a game. They are red-hot right now winning 7 games in a row, but the Pac-10 was dreadful this year. The top 2 or 3 Big East teams probably could've gone undefeated in the Pac-10. Their best win this year was probably the California game which put them into the tournament. If they had lost that, I don't think I'd be talking about them right now. They are extremely prolific on offense scoring 80.5 points per game which is first in the Pac-10 and 9th in the nation. They do play good defense and led the Pac-10 in rebounding for the third time in five years. My other two sleepers are whoever wins the Temple-Cornell game. Both teams are very underseeded in my opinion and I think Temple should've been given a 3 and Cornell at least a 10. I got a chance to see Temple this past Friday and they have a very good team again. Temple continues to pride themself on defense and have a relatively veteran team. However, I do worry about their scoring. Their best players are Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez in terms of points scored, but they can be inconsistent at times. If Fernandez struggles to score or is forced into some errors by the Big Red, they could be one and done. They've allowed only 28% shooting from 3 point range, but Cornell is very proficient in shooting the three and have a good field goal percentage overall, so it should make for a very interesting matchup. Cornell, on the other hand, won the Ivy League, their third straight title relatively easy going 13-1 in conference, their only loss to Penn. I really like this team's chances to do some damage in this year's tournament. Hopefully it'll be reparation for when I picked them to beat Stanford and they were down 30 at halftime two years ago so it'll really come full circle with a win (or a couple) in this year's tournament. Teams like this are always dangerous because it's their last go-around. This team has 5 starters returning from last year's team. They shoot 48 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from three point range. They do a great job of passing the ball averaging nearly 17 assists a game and have a good assist to turnover ratio. To Temple's advantage, they rely on the three at nearly 10 a game, but the Big Red have been red hot winning 15 of their last 16. Ryan Wittman is their player to watch averaging nearly 18 points per game. They have an inside presence too with 7 footer Jeff Foote who averages 12 points and 8 rebounds per game, which makes Cornell a team unlike any other team the Ivy League usually sees and what makes this team particularly formidable come Friday afternoon.

Upsets
Don't see too many upsets in this bracket in the first round, just two which are.
#9 Wake Forest over #8 Texas
#12 Cornell over #5 Temple

Players to Watch
DeMarcus Cousins KENTUCKY
Patrick Patterson KENTUCKY
John Wall KENTUCKY
Da'Sean Butler WEST VIRGINIA
Darington Hobson NEW MEXICO
Trevon Hughes WISCONSIN
Juan Fernandez TEMPLE
Lazar Hayward MARQUETTE
Trevor Booker CLEMSON
Damion James TEXAS
Dexter Pittman TEXAS
Al-Farouq Aminu WAKE FOREST
Quincy Pondexter WASHINGTON
Isaiah Thomas WASHINGTON
Ryan Wittman CORNELL
Jeff Foote CORNELL
Noah Dahlman WOFFORD
Anthony Johnson MONTANA
Reggie Holmes MORGAN STATE
Tommy Hubbard EAST TENNESSEE STATE

Best Games
#5 Temple vs. #12 Cornell
#7 Clemson vs. #10 Missouri
#8 Texas vs. #9 Wake Forest

South Region
Records/How they Got Here
1) Duke 29-5/Atlantic Coast Champion
2) Villanova 24-7/Big East at-large
3) Baylor 25-7/Big 12 at-large
4) Purdue 27-5/Big Ten at-large
5) Texas A&M 23-9/Big 12 at-large
6) Notre Dame 23-11/Big East at-large
7) Richmond 26-8/Atlantic 10 at-large
8) California 23-10/Pacific-10 at-large
9) Louisville 20-12/Big East at-large
10) Saint Mary's 26-5/West Coast Champion
11) Old Dominion 26-8/Colonial Athletic Association Champion
12) Utah State 27-7/Western Athletic at-large
13) Siena 27-6/Metro Atlantic Champion
14) Sam Houston State 25-7/Southland Champion
15) Robert Morris 23-11/Northeast Champion
16) Winthrop 19-13/Big South Champion OR
16) Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17-15/SWAC Champion

Favorite
There is no question in this bracket that the favorite is Duke. Their path to the Elite Eight is pretty weak. The only team I think could potentially give them a challenge is Louisville in the second round. I think if they play California in the second round or Texas A&M or Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen, it will be a walk in the park for them. With how Villanova played down the stretch, I can't really consider them a favorite. They have a decent chance to win the South Region, but I personally like Baylor more than Villanova this season. Villanova almost lost to American last year and I really liked their team last year. Who's to say they can't have an early exit this year? Duke has an extremely experienced team which starts three seniors and two juniors. Their only bad loss was to North Carolina State. They played one of the nation's toughest schedules while still being the 1 seed in the ACC. The schedule will help them for the road they'll face in the tournament, but it shouldn't be too hard for them to make a deep run. They're also due for one to happen after early exits to Villanova, West Virginia and VCU in recent years.

Dark Horses
If ever there was a dark horse, Baylor would be it. They're getting pushed aside by the more glamorous teams-Duke, Villanova, Notre Dame, but I've liked what I've see over the season as well as the last couple years from Baylor. They are a well coached team by Scott Drew and have two great guards in LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter. Dunn scores 19 points and dishes out 5 assists per game. Carter averages 16 points and 6 assists per game. They are as deadly a duo that a team could see in the tournament. Ekpe Udoh could make a huge difference inside the paint. He averages 13.5 points per game and almost 10 rebounds per game. He led the Big 12 in blocked shots and was second in rebounding. They also have a number of good wins beating teams such as Xavier, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M and Texas (twice).
I'm not buying Notre Dame as a dark horse and actually am going to pick them to go out first round, but do think if they beat Old Dominion they could transform into a sleeper. They have gotten hot as of late and picked up their defensive play. I personally feel that they are tremendously overseeded considering they were "on the bubble" entering the Big East Tournament. After star forward Luke Harangody went down with an injury, their offense became more patient instead of being the high scoring and good shooting team that we were used to seeing. They are good three point shooters but Old Dominion matches up decently with them and frankly you could argue Dominion should be a 7 or an 8 seed as well. The other 2 teams I like as Dark Horses to do some damage is the winner of Richmond and Saint Mary's. Richmond is an experienced team who has played (and beaten) some very good teams this season such as Temple, Old Dominion and Missouri. They just lost to Temple in the Championship this weekend in a close game. Richmond has enjoyed one of its bst seasons in its history. They cracked the top 25 last month for the first time in almost 20 years. This team reminds me a lot of the Dayton team that pulled an upset on West Virginia last year. They play very good defense, holding teams to 39% shooting, but have more offense than the Flyers team had last year. Kevin Anderson averages 18 points per game. David Gonzalvez scoes 14 a game. Justin Harper scores 11 points per game and pulls down roughly 6 boards. They lack a lot of rebounding, but make up for it with their depth and good guard play, another trait which Dayton had last year. Saint Mary's on the other hand has a much more prolific offense. Their starters (Samhan-21.5 ppg, McConnell-13 ppg, Dellavedova-12.5 ppg, Allen-11 ppg, and Steindl 7.5 ppg) average 65 points per game without even going to the bench. Their ability to spread around the ball should be a major story in how this game plays out but Richmond has a big advantage defensively. They are very good three point shooters and their height will help them in their early matchups against Richmond and Villanova if they were to win their first round game. The Gaels shoot well from the line at 76%, but another big difference in the first round game is the depth of the bench. Mary's isn't very deep while Richmond is. That could certianly be a difference maker.

Upsets
I'm not picking these two in my bracket, but I could definitely see them.
#13 Siena over #4 Purdue
#12 Utah State over #5 Texas A&M
This one I am picking in my bracket.
#11 Old Dominion over #6 Notre Dame

Players to Watch
Jon Scheyer DUKE
Kyle Singler DUKE
Corey Fisher VILLANOVA
Scottie Reynolds VILLANOVA
Tweety Carter BAYLOR
LaceDarius Dunn BAYLOR
Ekpe Udoh BAYLOR
E'Twaun Moore PURDUE
JaJuan Johnson PURDUE
Donald Sloan TEXAS A&M
Luke Harangody NOTRE DAME
Kevin Anderson RICHMOND
Jerome Randle CALIFORNIA
Samardo Samuels LOUISVILLE
Omar Samhan SAINT MARY'S
Gerald Lee OLD DOMINION
Alex Franklin SIENA
Edwin Ubiles SIENA
Gilberto Clavell SAM HOUSTON STATE
Karon Abraham ROBERT MORRIS

Best Games
#4 Purdue vs. #13 Siena
#5 Texas A&M vs. #12 Utah State
#6 Notre Dame vs. #11 Old Dominion
#7 Richmond vs. #10 St. Mary's

Hope everyone enjoyed reading my preview on the right side of the bracket. I'll be back tomorrow with the Midwest Preview and NIT Picks and on Wednesday, I'll preview the West Bracket and give more NIT picks. Thursday morning I'll give my picks for the tournament games that day.