And the Academy Award Goes to...

I hate to start my next blog the way I finished my last one, but it is that time of year with yet another Awards show. I'm a big fan of prognosticating things-sports, entertainment, etc. It's never to early to predict how you think things are going to go and unlike the Grammy's, there isn't a billion awards given out here, rather, about twenty, most of which are significant and ones people care about. Also unlike the Grammys, movies are nowhere as subjective as music. A good movie is usually considered good by many people while a bad movie is considered bad by many people. In music, many people remain either impartial or have much more varying opinions. So let's take a look at the nominees...

BEST PICTURE
The category this year is going back to its roots and giving 10 nominations rather than 5, which could make this a closer race than years past. This has been a decent year for movies as I enjoyed all the movies that I have seen in this category(4 of them). You also have to be somewhat surprised by a nomination for "The Blind Side" and "Up in the Air". I enjoyed "Up in the Air" but think that there are definitely some movies that could've argud for that spot as well as "The Blind Side". All of the other movies have been critically acclaimed and most reviewers have nearly all of them in their top 10. I would say the early favorite to win is probably Avatar, mainly for its accomplishments in what it's brought to the cinema as well as the story itself, not to mention the tons of money it has brought to the cinema and shattering what was thought to be an unachievable record in "Titanic." I think the other favorite right behind that is "The Hurt Locker", which is a movie that chronicles the main character's job as a bomb diffuser in the war in Iraq. It is a phenomonal movie full of suspense and really does a great job hammering home the fact that war is a drug. If I had a vote, this would be where it is going to. The following 5 movies I think will get some votes but are hardly what "Slumdog Millionaire" was last year. I think the problem when it comes to having 10 movies is that the lesser known ones and more independent ones will knock each other off a bit which is why I can see "An Education", "Precious" and "A Serious Man" keeping each other's votes down a bit. I think "Inglorious Basterds" will probably get the third best turnout but not be enough to handle the top two.

Predicted Winner:
The Hurt Locker

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
From what I've heard, this is Jeff Bridge's to lose. In "Crazy Heart", he portrays an aging country singer. I've heard this movie isn't great, but his performance is phenomonal. I will trust the public here and predict him to win. I think Jeremy Renner will be the runner up for his performance in "The Hurt Locker".

Predicted Winner:
Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
To me, this one's an absolute no-brainer. Christophe Waltz in his first English movie plays Colonel Hans Landa, an evil Nazi officer who seeks out people in hiding in "Inglorious Basterds". He does a great job playing his character because he can be absolutely ruthless at times, but also has moments that are pretty funny as well. I'd be shocked if he didn't win this. Quentin Tarantino has said that if it had not been for Christophe coming along, he probably would have never made this movie. That's how invaluable he was to the making of this movie and is a big reason why it was so successful. Matt Damon will probably be the runner up in "Invictus", but I really don't even suspect it will be that close.

Predicted Winner:
Christophe Waltz in Inglorious Basterds

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
This to me is a very interesting category this year. You have two great actresses in Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep in two of their less memorable performances. You have Sandra Bullock in one of her best performances of her career as well as two unknowns in Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe in the movies "A Single Man" and "Precious". I have a feeling that Gabourey prevails in this category because of her memorable portrayal of a pregnant teenageer who has been abused by her parents for years. I just don't think this is Helen or Meryl's year for this category and think that Gabourey's preformance will attract more votes than Sandra's or Carey's.

Predicted Winner:
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I would say this is probably a three horse race going in with Penelope Cruz and Maggie Gylenhaal being out already because I think their roles have been in less memorable movies than "Up in the Air" and "Precious". The characters in the latter two movies are also people that you can either a) relate to or b) feel some emotion to or against them and I think that really helps Vera, Anna and Monique in this category. Vera plays Alex Goran, a business traveller who has a no-strings attached relationship with George Clooney. Anna Kendrick is also up for actress in a supporting role in "Up in the Air". She plays Natalie Keener, an ambitious but inexperienced young woman who is sent with George Clooney to properly learn how to do his job. Personally, I liked her character more and you care about her more than Vera's. You feel bad for her when she and her boyfriend break up or when she realizes that firing people takes a much more emotional and realistic toll when you're doing it in person rather than on the computer. But I think the winner of this is probably going to be Mo'Nique who I've heard did a great job playing an abusive mother who has played a devastating impact on her daughter.

Predicted Winner:
Mo'Nique in Precious

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Not even gonna waste, my time. "Up" in a landslide.

Predicted Winner:
Up

I'm going to briefly give my picks for the less popular categories

ART DIRECTION
Predicted Winner:
Avatar

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Winner:
Avatar

COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Winner:
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Winner:
Food, Inc.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predicted Winner:
Music By Prudence

FILM EDITING
Predicted Winner:
District 9

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Predicted Winner:
Un Prophete

MAKEUP
Predicted Winner:
Star Trek

MUSIC ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Winner:
Sherlock Holmes

MUSIC ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Winner:
The Weary Kind(Theme from Crazy Heart)

SHORT FILM ANIMATED
Predicted Winner:
The Lady and the Reaper

SHORT FILM LIVE
Predicted Winner:
Kavi

SOUND EDITING
Predicted Winner:
The Hurt Locker

SOUND MIXING
Predicted Winner:
The Hurt Locker

VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Winner:
Avatar

BEST DIRECTING
All five candidates are well deservinf of this award. James Cameron has the highest and second highest grossing movies ever. Quentin Tarantino is also one of the best directors of the last twenty years and Kathryn Bigelow, Lee Daniels and Jason Reitman all did a phenomonal job in directing each of their respective films. I think Kathryn Bigelow's going to win this award. "The Hurt Locker" to me is considerably better than"Inglorious Basterds". In that movie, there's way too much dialogue which seems to be a Tarantino trademark. I also think some people may go against Cameron because of how much money it made and the Academy sometimes avoids going more mainstream for soemthing a little off the path. But to me, I think if you put both movies side to side, "The Hurt Locker" would be considered a better movie. You've seen Cameron invested a hell of a lot of movies like this. You know what he can do. But Kathryn Bigelow made a superb film for early on in her career and she deserves this award.

Predicted Winner:
Kathryn Bigelow for the Hurt Locker

WRITING ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Winner:
Up in the Air

WRITING ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Winner:
Inglorious Basterds

Hope you enjoyed reading my early Oscar preview. We'll see how I do in a month.