GMC Semis Preview

After going 2-2 in my predictions Sunday (Spotswood pulled off a shocker and my upset pick of North Brunswick didn't come through), it's to pick the semifinal games tonight in the GMC Tournament.

The first game of the two tonight should be a better game than the second one. It features the Monroe Falcons against the Sayreville Bombers. Both teams had very impressive wins on Sunday winning by about 20 points. Monroe has beaten Sayreville twice this season. The first time was a 68-62 overtime win at Monroe very early in the year, but Monroe had several players abnged up and starting point guard Ahmid Williams didn't play. I said it last year and the other day, but I've been impressed with how Sayreville has played in the games I've seen. I think they match up well defenisvely with Monroe and are capable of limiting them offensively. Sayreville is also one of the most balanced teams in the GMC. For example, in the game vs. North Brunswick the other day, Tarif Jackson was effective as the point, Mark Keir scored 21, and their two 6'4 players Dave Milewski and Daryl Stephenson combined for 23 points and 32 rebounds. Both teams have good bench play as well and that could be a telling storyline in tonight's game. Now looking at Monroe, they're a similar team to Sayreville because both teams are made up of a bunch of role-players who are all used to serve a particular purpose. Kenny Pace would be Monroe's go-to-guy but don't be surprised if Danny Brix, Tim Brix, Ahmid Williams,etc wind up making the big plays. Historically there's an upset in the GMC Semifinals, but I really don't see St. Joe's losing to Spotswood tonight. I think Sayreville is much more prime for an upset and as the Born Power Index spread shows, I'm probably right with thinking that. I think Sayreville's height will make a big difference in this game and I think Sayreville's got a little more experience than Monroe does. Sayreville has 5 seniors and 7 juniors. If they can limit Ken Pace, I really like their chances to pull of the upset and advance to the Championship game.

#6 Sayreville+4.5 over #2 Monroe by 3

The other game of the evening starts at 7:00 and that is the St. Joe's Falcons against the Spotswood Chargers. Spotswood sent waves through the GMC with their shocking win over East Brunswick on Sunday, who they were a 10 point underdog to according to BPI. It certainly didn't look it as they jumped out to a 44-28 lead with 6 minutes to go. However, East Brunswick had a furious comeback and cut it down to two before Spotswood finally was able to get a steal and lay it up and in for the win. St. Joe's has got to like the position they're in. They have more experience, talent, depth, and a better defense than Spotswood. They've played in (albeit lost) the last two GMC Championship games and players such as Steve Rennard, Rob Ashamole, Andrew Morgan, Eric Peterson and Nick Contino have all been a part of those two teams while Spotswood is 9-19 in the GMC Tournament all time and has never reached the final four. St. Joe's the other day got a scare early when Cardinal McCarrick jumped out to a 20-7 lead in a scene that was pretty close to the J.P. Stevens game last year, but they soon regained their composure and outscored Cardinal McCarrick 52-29 the rest of the way for a 59-49 win. I think an important thing to see in that game was St. Joe's ability to come back without Steve in the game. This could prove to be very important from here on out and especially in the CBA game. Personally to me, I feel Steve has to either win a county championship or beat CBA to establish himself as one of St. Joe's greats. Jay Williams walked out of Joe's winning two sectional and county titles and while Steve does have a respectable 3-3 in states, 2 of those 3 have come against CBA and the other loss was a bad one at the hands of Gloucester Catholic. I think Steve realizes this too and knows how important a win vs. CBA would be for St. Joe's. In general, I don't think you can be perceived as one of a program's greats if you don't win a championship of some sort, so at the very least a county title would add to Steve's legacy once he graduates this year to go on to play ball at University of Pennsylvania. Quenton DeCosey has come on strong with performances such as his 20 point, 17 rebound day on Sunday. Andrew Morgan has also proved to be capable of coming up with big time shots and can hit from anywhere on the floor. The rest of their players such as Eric Peterson, Nick Contino, Bobby O'Grady and Rob Ashamole are all guys that can step up at a moment's notice and really give the team a boost. I think the key to how far we go in counties and states is how well Quenton and Rob play. If they can have decent games and give Steve a couple extra options, I like our chances to make some noise. Spotswood has a lot of senior players such as Cody Pace, Mike Liming, Tyler Osofsky, Allen Kuiper, James and Tom Peretti which could bode well for them tonight and enable them to hang with St. Joe's. They also play hard and with a lot of heart which was shown on Sunday and at this point feel that they have nothing to lose which could help them play at ease and more relaxed which could improve their chances tonight. In the end, I'm still sticking with Joe's.

#1 St. Joe's-11 over #5 Spotswood by 18

Hope you enjoyed my preview and I'll be back on Friday to preview the championship and hopefully Joe's will be there and finally get me a county championship after how long I've helped them out. Even if we lose, I'll gladly take a win vs. CBA in an elimination game instead lol. Good luck to the 4 teams remaining.